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[Econ] Making the Best of a Very Bad Thing
November 2030 Well, uh, this sucks. Just a few short months after the Arab States of the Gulf finally unified, the world economy decided to explode. This is what we in the business of economics call a very bad thing. The effects across the FAS have been relatively disparate. The United Arab Emirates, easily the most diversified economy in the region, has been the least heavily impacted (though it's still bad). Diversification programs in Oman and Bahrain have also helped to stave off some of the worst impacts of the crisis, though they haven't been as successful in avoiding the effects as the UAE. Qatar and Kuwait, still almost entirely reliant on hydrocarbon exports, are not happy with this turn of events. Falling global oil prices, though propped up a little by a sudden increase in demand from China, have left their economies struggling much more than the rest of the country, and in desperate need of assistance from the better off parts of the country. One major pain point in this crisis has been the FAS's economic ties to the United States. While most of the FAS's trade is with Asia, Africa, and Europe, the US financial system still plays a crucial role in the FAS. The stability of the US Dollar has long been used to protect the economies of the Gulf using their vast Forex reserves (earned from oil sales) to peg their currency to the US Dollar. With the US Dollar in complete collapse, the value of the Khaleeji is plummeting right along with it, causing a significant degree of harm to the FAS's economy. To help offset this harm (and to decouple the FAS's economy from a country that the FAS is starting to view as maybe not the most reliable economic partner), the Central Bank in Dubai has announced that the Khaleeji will switch its peg from the US Dollar to a basket of foreign currencies (the Euro, the Pound Sterling, the Swiss Franc, the US Dollar, and the Japanese Yen). The FAS hopes that this will help to salvage the Khaleeji's value, better protecting the economy from the collapse of the dollar-based international financial system. Rumor has it that the Central Bank is discussing the idea of unpegging the Khaleeji entirely and allowing it to float freely, but so far, the Central Bank has made no moves towards floating the Khaleeji. Crises suck. They shatter the status quo and throw established norms and procedures into chaos. No one really wins during a crisis. But in another sense, they're a double-edged sword. The status quo is often a repressive entity, reinforcing existing hierarchies and preventing dramatic shifts in the order of things. Chaos breaks that apart, giving the ingenuitive and the entrepreneurial on opportunity to better their lot in ways they otherwise could not. Put differently: chaos is a ladder, and the FAS intends to be the one climbing it. As the largest economy in the Arab World (and one of the world's 20 largest economies) by both nominal GDP and GDP per capita (by a significant margin--it's probably either Saudi Arabia or Egypt in second place in nominal GDP, and definitely Saudi Arabia in second place in GDP per capita, but the FAS more than doubles the country in second place in both categories, so it's sort of a moot point), the FAS hopes to cement its place as the regional economic power. The FAS has announced a new slate of policies intended to attract rich investors, manufacturing firms, and financiers fleeing the new nationalization program of the United States. New free trade zones have been created throughout the country--especially in the struggling, undiversified regions of Kuwait and Qatar--with the goal of convincing fleeing American manufacturers to set up shop in these areas. Attractions include wildly low tax rates (as low as zero percent in some instances), a common law framework (as opposed to the Sharia-based legal system in most of the FAS), highly subsidized land prices (sometimes free), relaxed financial restrictions (making it easier to move money in and out of the FTZ), and, for large enough firms moving enough operations into the country, preferential visa treatment (making it easier for them to relocate foreign employees into the country). Sitting at one of the major crossroads of global trade, moving operations to the FAS offers easy access to both the world's established consumer markets (like the EU and East Asia) as well as to some of its largest growing markets (South and Southeast Asia, East Africa, and MENA). Pair this with wildly high standards of living (for people who aren't slaves Asian or African migrant workers) and established expatriate communities, and the FAS becomes an incredibly attractive option for American and other foreign firms looking to relocate. In addition to manufacturing-oriented FTZs, special attention has been paid to attracting service-oriented firms to new and existing FTZs in the vein of Dubai Internet City, Dubai Design District, Dubai Knowledge Park, and Dubai Media City, with the goal of developing a robust service economy that can capture growing markets in the MENA, South Asia, and East African regions. In advertising these zones, the governments of the FAS have highlighted the success of previous ventures in Dubai, which have attracted the regional headquarters of giants like Facebook, Intel, LinkedIn, Google, Dell, Samsung, Microsoft, IBM, Tata Consultancy, and more. Perhaps one of the most substantial pushes, though, is to attract American financial services and FinTech firms to base in the FAS (particularly Dubai, Kuwait City, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, the traditional centers of regional finance). New financial industry free trade zones have been set up in the four cities, structured in the vein of the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). These financial FTZs boast an independent and internationally regulated regulatory and judicial system, a common law framework, and extremely low taxation rates. All government services in these regions are available in English (the lingua franca of international finance), and in events where ambiguity exists in the legal and regulatory systems, the systems are set to default to English Common Law (except for the Kuwait City International Financial Centre, which is hoping to better tailor itself towards American financial firms by defaulting to American Civil Law from pre-2020 rather than English Common Law). Much like in the DIFC, these new FTZs will also run their own courts, staffed in large part by top judicial talent from Common Law (or in the case of Kuwait City, American Civil Law) jurisdictions like Singapore, England, and (formerly) Hong Kong. Using these FTZ, the four cities hope to raise their profile as financial centers. Dubai in particular is hoping to break into the top ten global financial centers--and it stands a good chance of doing so, too, as it sits at number 12, just behind cities like LA, SF, and Shenzhen--while the other cities are just hoping to boost their profile into the 20s or 10s (according to Long Finance, Dubai is number 12 in the world and 1 in the region, Abu Dhabi is number 39 in the world and two in the region, Doha is number 48 in the world, and Kuwait City is number 91).
"The youngest French leader since the Emperor Napoleon walked through the courtyards of the Louvre in central Paris alone, to the sound of Beethoven's 'Ode to Joy,' the European anthem on Sunday night to speak to thousands of his supporters."
"president-elect admitted, was facing an 'immense task,' in reinforcing European unity, fixing the economy and ensuring the country's security in the face of terror threats."
" source close to Macron told the Reuters news agency he had spoken with Chancellor Merkel on Sunday night and said he would travel to Berlin "very quickly." Merkel's spokesman said she had telephoned Macron to congratulate him on his victory..."
"Merkel 'looked forward to working together with the new president on the basis of trust in the spirit of the traditional German-French friendship,' her spokesman Steffen Seibert said."
"Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, told Macron: "I am delighted that the ideas you defended of a strong and progressive Europe, which protects all its citizens, will be those that you will carry into your presidency"."
"Trump also tweeted his congratulations on Macron's 'big win', saying he looked forward to working with him."
"He plans to blend a big reduction in public spending and a relaxation of labour laws with greater investment in training."
"projected abstention rate on Sunday of around 25 percent, the highest this century, and by estimates that around 9 percent of those who did vote cast blank or spoiled ballots.
* Many of those will have been supporters of the far-left maverick Jean-Luc Melenchon, whose high-spending, anti-EU, anti-globalisation platform had many similarities with Le Pen's."
"France's biggest labour union, the CFDT |Website, welcomed Macron's victory but said that the National Front's score was still worryingly high."
"Le Pen will now have to work to try to convert her presidential result into parliamentary seats, in a two-round system that has in the past encouraged voters to vote tactically to keep her out."
"her (Le Pen) deputy Florian Philippot distanced the movement even further from him by saying the new, reconstituted party would not be called 'National Front'."
" Le Pen said she had called Macron to wish him 'success' in tackling the 'huge challenges' he faces."
"The euro rose against the dollar in Asian trade and other financial markets are expected to react positively to the news."
"Macron will now face huge challenges as he attempts to enact his domestic agenda of cutting state spending, easing labour laws, boosting education in deprived areas and extending new protections to the self-employed."
"Hundreds of thousands of emails and documents stolen from his campaign were dumped online on Friday and then spread by anti-secrecy group WikiLeaks, leading the candidate to call it an attempt at 'democratic destabilisation.' "
"Transfers of power...No date has been set for Macron’s swearing-in, but it must be before May 14, which is Francois Hollande’s last day as president."
"first step is to name a prime minister, who then must go to work selecting a cabinet. Macron says he already has a candidate in mind, so his announcement could come almost immediately."
" How could Macron’s party win Parliament? Most likely it would need to partner up with another party, which would very much shape Macron’s governing agenda. His policies would look different if he’s forced into a coalition with the Socialists or with the center-right Republicans."
"Macron’s team successfully managed to skirt several attempts to derail his campaign - by hacking its communications and distributing purportedly leaked documents - that were reminiscent of the hacking of Democratic Party communications during Hillary Clinton’s U.S. election campaign."
"shows no sign of wishing to change France’s traditional alliances or reshape its military and peacekeeping roles in the Middle East and Africa."
"He has promised a France that would stand up to Russian President Vladimir Putin but that also would seek to work with the Russian leader on what he says will be one of his top priorities: fighting the Islamic State "
"France has been in a state of emergency since then and 50,000 security forces safeguarded Sunday's vote."
"Without a legislative majority for his fledgling En Marche! party, Mr Macron, a self-styled independent, may become a prisoner of traditional parties"
"Without a majority, he will have a less-convincing mandate for the pro-business measures, labour market reforms and overhaul of the state that form the core of his economic programme."
"...French society is in despair about high unemployment, stagnant living standards, blighted suburbs and racial and religious tensions"
"Berlin has heard promises of far-reaching change before from newly elected French presidents. But if Germany is not to assist Mr Macron with support for pro-growth investment policies and less dogma about public finances, who in Paris will the Germans ever help?"
"The euro went above $1.10 - the first time it has done so since the US election result - after opening at $1.09 and the single currency also surged against the pound, hitting 84.9p from an opening level of 84.7p." 1 euro = 11.12 Venezuelan Bolívar
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